Southern Miss

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	207.0
Current RPI:	207
Expected SOS:	136
Current SOS:	136
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	9-12
Expected Conf Record:	9-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-3
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	225
Expected OOC SOS:	165

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	207.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Miss.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	Michigan (12.0)	B10	A	61-47	L	0%
11-24	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	N	84-71	L	0%
11-25	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	N	71-64	W	100%
11-26	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	N	77-63	L	0%
11-29	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	69-58	L	0%
12-10	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	89-71	W	100%
12-13	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	A	54-69	W	100%
12-21	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	A	98-45	L	0%
12-23	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	N	64-70	L	0%
12-28	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	85-66	L	0%
12-30	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	82-66	L	0%
1-4	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	85-75	W	100%
1-6	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	93-83	W	100%
1-11	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	86-75	L	0%
1-13	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	69-49	L	0%
1-18	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	86-75	W	100%
1-20	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	85-78	W	100%
1-27	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	89-66	L	0%
2-1	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	76-70	L	0%
2-3	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	66-77	W	100%
2-8	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	63-68	L	0%
2-10	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	72-54	W	100%
2-15	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	62-72	L	0%
2-17	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	69-87	L	0%
2-22	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	64-56	L	0%
2-24	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	73-44	L	0%
3-3	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	H	72-64	W	100%
3-7	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	N	68-69	W	100%
3-8	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	N	68-71	W	100%
3-9	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	N	85-75	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Miss's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern Miss's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern Miss.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern Miss	CUSA	26.31	26.31	40.32	40.32	-5.09	-5.09
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	5.68	5.68	77.78	77.78	3.15	3.15
UAB	CUSA	4.18	4.18	55.17	55.17	0.43	0.43
Marshall	CUSA	4.16	4.16	67.74	67.74	1.48	1.48
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	4.16	4.16	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
UTSA	CUSA	4.13	4.13	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
UTEP	CUSA	4.08	4.08	32.14	32.14	-1.46	-1.46
FIU	CUSA	4.02	4.02	37.04	37.04	-1.04	-1.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	2.59	2.59	68.75	68.75	0.97	0.97
North Texas	CUSA	2.50	2.50	44.83	44.83	-0.26	-0.26
Old Dominion	CUSA	2.49	2.49	77.42	77.42	1.37	1.37
Rice	CUSA	2.44	2.44	17.86	17.86	-1.57	-1.57
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	2.44	2.44	33.33	33.33	-0.81	-0.81
Charlotte	CUSA	2.40	2.40	18.52	18.52	-1.51	-1.51
South Alabama	SB	1.80	1.80	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
Troy	SB	1.80	1.80	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.74	1.74	10.00	10.00	-1.40	-1.40
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.72	1.72	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
South Dakota	Sum	1.72	1.72	72.41	72.41	0.77	0.77
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.72	1.72	20.69	20.69	-1.01	-1.01
Michigan	B10	1.69	1.69	78.79	78.79	0.98	0.98
Florida St.	ACC	1.67	1.67	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.67	1.67	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.25	0.25	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Georgia St.	SB	0.19	0.19	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
James Madison	CAA	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.16	0.16	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Texas St.	SB	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Iowa	B10	0.13	0.13	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Denver	Sum	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	82.76	82.76	0.05	0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01